The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise Author Nate Silver
ISBN-10 9781101595954
Year 2012-09-27
Pages 544
Language en
Publisher Penguin
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 1623150523
Year 2012-11-01
Pages 46
Language en
Publisher
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book the 30 Minute Expert Series

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes   The Expert Guide to Nate Silver s Critically Acclaimed Book  the 30 Minute Expert Series Author The 30 Minute Expert Series
ISBN-10 162315121X
Year 2013-03-29
Pages 32
Language en
Publisher
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For a complete understanding of Nate Silver's Signal and the Noise, we strongly encourage you to purchase the original book titled The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--But Some Don't by Penguin Publishing Big data has arrived! Whether you're using that data to make a billion-dollar decision to merge two companies or to choose a team to win the World Series, how do you distinguish the signal (the truth) from the noise (our all-too-human impulse to make choices based on personal bias)? In his groundbreaking work The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver brings the complexities of statistics down to earth by using real-life examples of how we all make predictions and why those predictions are often wrong. The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is your expert guide to Nate Silver's main thesis that our decision making is filtered through our personal assumptions and beliefs as opposed to the truth of the data at hand. This concise companion details: * Nate Silver's journey from forecasting Major League Baseball players' performance to predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections * Both praise for and critical reactions to his ideas from such noted sources as the New York Review of Books and the Wall Street Journal * Key concepts, including analyzing prediction failures, practicing Bayesian thinking, and expanding self-awareness * Key terms, such as Bayes's theorem, with easy-to-understand definitions and examples * Recommended readings and a bibliography listing additional resources analyzing Silver's work and the phenomenon of big data The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes is a timely guide to a topic that affects all our lives. From choosing stocks, to predicting wars, to making personal changes in light of climate change, The Signal and the Noise challenges both nations and individuals to make smarter choices. About the 30 Minute Expert Series Offering a concise exploration of a book's ideas, history, application, and critical reception, the 30 Minute Expert Series is designed for busy individuals interested in acquiring an in-depth understanding of seminal works. More than just a summary, the 30 Minute Expert Series offers detailed analysis, critical presentation of key ideas and their application, extensive reading lists for additional information, and a contextual understanding of the work of leading authors. Designed as a companion to the original work, the 30 Minute Expert Series enables readers to develop expert knowledge of an important work ... in 30 minutes.

The Theory that Would Not Die

The Theory that Would Not Die Author Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
ISBN-10 9780300175097
Year 2011
Pages 335
Language en
Publisher Yale University Press
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Bayes rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise Author Wim C. Van Etten
ISBN-10 9780470024126
Year 2006-02-03
Pages 270
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting Author Philip E. Tetlock
ISBN-10 9780804136709
Year 2015-09-29
Pages 352
Language en
Publisher Crown
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A New York Times Bestseller An Economist Best Book of 2015 "The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow." —Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. From the Hardcover edition.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Silvia Moreno-Garcia
ISBN-10 1781082995
Year 2015-02-10
Pages 272
Language en
Publisher Solaris
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A literary fantasy about love, music and sorcery, set against the background of Mexico City. Mexico City, 1988: Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said “I love you” with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, has two equally unhip friends -- Sebastian and Daniela -- and a whole lot of vinyl records to keep her company. When she discovers how to cast spells using music, the future looks brighter for the trio. With help from this newfound magic, the three friends will piece together their broken families, change their status as non-entities, and maybe even find love... Mexico City, 2009: Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father’s funeral. It’s hard enough to cope with her family, but then she runs into Sebastian, and it revives memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? What precipitated the bitter falling out with her father? And, is there any magic left?

Signal and Noise

Signal and Noise Author Brian Larkin
ISBN-10 0822341085
Year 2008-03-31
Pages 313
Language en
Publisher Duke University Press
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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div

Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction

Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction Author Saeed V. Vaseghi
ISBN-10 9780470094952
Year 2006-02-03
Pages 480
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Signal processing plays an increasingly central role in the development of modern telecommunication and information processing systems, with a wide range of applications in areas such as multimedia technology, audio-visual signal processing, cellular mobile communication, radar systems and financial data forecasting. The theory and application of signal processing deals with the identification, modelling and utilisation of patterns and structures in a signal process. The observation signals are often distorted, incomplete and noisy and hence, noise reduction and the removal of channel distortion is an important part of a signal processing system. Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction, Third Edition, provides a fully updated and structured presentation of the theory and applications of statistical signal processing and noise reduction methods. Noise is the eternal bane of communications engineers, who are always striving to find new ways to improve the signal-to-noise ratio in communications systems and this resource will help them with this task. * Features two new chapters on Noise, Distortion and Diversity in Mobile Environments and Noise Reduction Methods for Speech Enhancement over Noisy Mobile Devices. * Topics discussed include: probability theory, Bayesian estimation and classification, hidden Markov models, adaptive filters, multi-band linear prediction, spectral estimation, and impulsive and transient noise removal. * Explores practical solutions to interpolation of missing signals, echo cancellation, impulsive and transient noise removal, channel equalisation, HMM-based signal and noise decomposition. This is an invaluable text for senior undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in the fields of digital signal processing, telecommunications and statistical data analysis. It will also appeal to engineers in telecommunications and audio and signal processing industries.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 9781623150532
Year 2012-11-20
Pages
Language en
Publisher Callisto Media Inc
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Hedgehog and the Fox

The Hedgehog and the Fox Author Isaiah Berlin
ISBN-10 9781400846634
Year 2013-06-02
Pages 144
Language en
Publisher Princeton University Press
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"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals Author Gabriel Vasilescu
ISBN-10 9783540265108
Year 2006-01-17
Pages 709
Language en
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
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Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals is a comprehensive reference book on noise and interference in electronic circuits, with particular focus on low-noise design. The first part of the book deals with mechanisms, modelling, and computation of intrinsic noise which is generated in every electronic device. The second part analyzes the coupling mechanisms which can lead to a contamination of circuits by parasitic signals and provides appropriate solutions to this problem. The last part contains more than 100 practical, elaborate case studies. The book requires no advanced mathematical training as it introduces the fundamental methods. Moreover, it provides insight into computational noise analysis with SPICE and NOF, a software developed by the author. The book addresses designers of electronic circuits as well as researchers from electrical engineering, physics, and material science. It should also be of interest for undergraduate and graduate students.

Signal Noise

Signal   Noise Author John Griesemer
ISBN-10 9781429961301
Year 2004-04-01
Pages 640
Language en
Publisher Picador
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Signal & Noise is the epic page-turning story of the laying of the trans-Atlantic cable, and the men and women who are caught in its monumental tide. It is also a novel about the collision of worlds seen and unseen: the present and the future; the living and the dead; the real and the imagined. On a wet London morning in 1857, American engineer Chester Ludlow arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, the Great Eastern. Also amidst the tumultuous throng is Jack Trace, a lonely bachelor and sketch artist hoping to make his name as an illustrator and journalist in the hurly burly of Fleet Street. Other witnesses include a drunken German by the name of Marx; the child who will christen the massive vessel by the wrong name; and Isambard Kingdom Brunel, the ship's apoplectic and dwarfish architect who will soon die in ignominy. As chief engineer for the Atlantic Cable Company, the charismatic Chester enters the orbit of business and showmanship embodied by J. Beaumol Spude, the bombastic Western beef magnate who will mastermind the funding of the project; Joachim Lindt, creator of the Phantasmagorium, an animated tableaux vivant; and his beautiful wife, the musician Katerina Lindt. Drawn by the demands and adventure of creating the first transoceanic telegraph, Chester leaves behind his fragile wife, Franny, at the family estate of Willing Mind in Maine. Abandoned and still mourning the accidental death of their four-year-old daughter, Franny finds solace in the company of Chester's troubled brother, Otis, who introduces her to the mysteries of the world of spiritualism just as séancing is becoming all the rage in the jittery times leading up to the Civil War. As Chester achieves renown as the glamorous engineer of the trans-Atlantic project, Franny, desperate to contact her dead child, becomes the preeminent spirit conjuror of a war-torn America.

The Journey and the Voice the Signal and the Noise

The Journey   and the Voice  the Signal and the Noise Author Vijay Baldev Mehra
ISBN-10 1468036297
Year 2012-03-01
Pages 248
Language en
Publisher Createspace Independent Pub
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As Amar starts his journey, he has no idea that this “little journey” is going to give him insights into the big one, the journey of life. Throughout the flight, Amar zones in and out of scenes from his life—his highly successful career, his successes and failures as a human being. And for the first time, he starts to listen to the voice and fathom its deep and unshakable wisdom. He had heard the voice many times before in his life, but he was not listening then. He listens now. And he learns of the signal. And the noise. And their interplay. And he develops uncanny insights into the journey, the big one—the Journey of Life. He learns to appreciate it, to live it, to love it for all its beauty. All its promise. And all its imperfections. And the voice speaks again to Amar, saying, “Remember, it's all good…This is all good.” Meant to start a process of inquiry, rather than to supply any concrete answers, The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise may prompt readers to look deeper into their own lives. Says the author, “I hope, after reading my novel, that readers feel warmer, bigger, and a little more whole.” “Three Stars…a pleasant read.” --ForeWord Reviews “Readers searching for spiritual beginnings will find a soft launching pad here.” --Kirkus Reviews “Here is humor and wisdom and much that those of us who have made the same journey will identify with. I recommend it to anyone who is looking for insights into the experience of “growing up”, about the life trajectory of a high flying ivy-league educated professional, and to those who would simply like a good laugh!” Abhishek Bhartia Director Sitaram Bhartia Institute of Science & Research New Delhi India “The Journey…and the Voice, the Signal and the Noise is an entertaining and enlightening metaphorical trip from the ego to the spiritual. As he reflects upon his past, Amar realizes that the experiences he considered detours in life were actually the true journey. This is a “Journey” that is utterly relatable, often humorous, and ultimately intellectually and emotionally satisfying.” Alexander A. Lach, Ph.D. Beverly Hills, CA USA “Mr. Mehra elicits the inner soul in each of us through this book as he helps us understand that life is not a destination...but in essence a journey. Within each milestone that Amar takes in this book, Mr. Mehra teaches us how to best live our own unique lives and differentiate what is important to each of us (signal) and what just passes as everyday life (noise) that we need to deal with, but not be fixated on. I would recommend this book to anyone who believes that the 'fast track' is the sole purpose in life and is looking at an approach to be better grounded. Mr. Mehra's insightful story teaches us what the right path might be...but we have to find it in ourselves.” Joel C. Polakoff Senior Partner CSC Healthcare Chicago, IL USA AUDIO BOOK: Select Chapters on You Tube PRESS RELEASES: PR NewsChannel Homepagehttp://www.prnewschannel.com/2012/08/14/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ NewBookreleases.us http://newbookreleases.us/book/man-discovers-magic-of-life-journey-in-new-introspective-novel-on-love-life-being-human/ CBS Marketwatchhttp://markets.cbsnews.com/cbsnews/news/read/22030759 Boston Globe http://finance.boston.com/boston/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Sacramento Beehttp://markets.financialcontent.com/mi.sacbee/news/read/22030759 The San Francisco Chroniclehttp://finance.sfgate.com/hearst.sfgate/news/read/22030759 WLS (ABC) Chicagohttp://finance.abc7chicago.com/abclocal.wls/news/read?GUID=22030759 The Columbus Dispatch http://markets.dispatch.com/columbusdispatch/news/read/22030759 Minnesota Public Radio News http://finance.mpr.org/mpr/news/read/22030759

Detection of Signals in Noise

Detection of Signals in Noise Author Robert N. McDonough
ISBN-10 9780080504087
Year 1995-05-02
Pages 495
Language en
Publisher Academic Press
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The Second Edition is an updated revision to the authors highly successful and widely used introduction to the principles and application of the statistical theory of signal detection. This book emphasizes those theories that have been found to be particularly useful in practice including principles applied to detection problems encountered in digital communications, radar, and sonar. Detection processing based upon the fast Fourier transform